Election Analysis

Final Outlooks: Women in 2026 Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

October 25, 2026

With just one week until Election Day, we have updated the outlook sections of our post-primary congressional and statewide elective executive office posts based on the most recent Cook Political Report contest ratings. These data provide the most up-to-date forecast on the potential for representational change in the 120th Congress and in gubernatorial leadership in 2027.

U.S. HOUSE

Women’s U.S. House representation in 2027 – and how it compares to 2026 – will be dependent on how the most competitive contests for women incumbents and non-incumbents break.

Current forecasts suggest a near wash between known incumbent departures and strongly favored pick-ups, leaving the contests most influential on women’s 2027 representation as leans or toss-ups. If results follow predictions toward Democratic advantage that have built over the course of the 2027 cycle, a new record for all women and Democratic women in the U.S. House will be likely. A new record for Republican women is unlikely and a drop from current levels is possible. Overall, though, net gain, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for Democratic, Republican, and overall women’s U.S. House representation from 2026 to 2027.

In 2026, 17 (12D, 5R) incumbent women are departing the U.S. House due to retirement, primary defeat, or running for another office. This means that maintaining the current level of women’s House representation (125) will require wins for at least the same number of non-incumbent women nominees. The record high for women serving in the U.S. House is 127, last set between November 12, 2024 and January 2, 2025.

Among the 271 (198D, 73R) women House nominees in 2026:

97 (79D, 18R) are incumbents strongly favored to win re-election;
11 (4D, 7R) are vulnerable incumbents (5 of these incumbents are being challenged by women);1
27 (24D, 3R) are non-incumbents in competitive contests;
15 (11D, 4R) are open-seat nominees in favored contests; and
121 (80D, 41R) are non-incumbent nominees in contests where their opponents are strongly favored.

Based on current Cook Political Report ratings, women are:

11 of 28 (39.3%) of the most likely Democratic and 4 of 33 (12.1%) of the most likely Republican non-incumbent nominee pickups in U.S. House contests. Women are 45.3% of all Democratic and 20.1% of all Republican non-incumbent nominees.
4 of 11 (36.4%) of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent nominees. They are 45.6% of all Democratic incumbent nominees.
7 of 31 (22.6%) most vulnerable Republican incumbents. They are 14.5% of all Republican incumbent nominees.

The number of non-incumbent women winners is unlikely to surpass the record high (36, set in 2018). That year, a record 35 non-incumbent Democratic women were successful. The record high for non-incumbent Republican winners of U.S. House seats is 19, set in 2020. Current ratings indicate that it is possible that the number of non-incumbent women House winners matches or surpasses the current record in election 2026, but surpassing previous in-party records (Democrat and Republican) of non-incumbent women House winners seems unlikely.

There are also implications of these outlooks for racial/ethnic representation among women in the U.S. House in 2027.

Among the 15 (11D, 4R) women nominees in open-seat contests favoring their parties, 4 (4D) are Black, 5 (5D) are Latina, 1 (1D) is Native American, and 7 (3D, 4R) are white. These counts include 1 (1D) woman who identifies as Afro-Latina and 1 (1D) woman who identifies as Latina and Native American.
Among the vulnerable incumbents, 2 (1D, 1R) are Asian American, 4 (1D, 3R) are Latina, and 6 (4D, 2R) are white.
Among the 17 (12D, 5R) departing incumbents, 4 (4D) are Black, 1 (1D) is Latina, 12 (7D, 5R) are white.

The following non-incumbent women nominees have the most potential, based on current contest ratings, to mark milestones in Election 2026.

Melat Kiros (D, CO-01) would be the first Black woman to serve in Congress from Colorado. At age 29, she will also be among the youngest women ever elected to the House.
Denise Powell (D, NE-02) would be the first Latina to serve in Congress from Nebraska.
Claire Valdez (D, NY-07) would be the first Native American woman to serve in Congress from New York.
Two former U.S. Representatives are poised to return to Congress after more than a decade away. Melissa Bean (D-IL) served from 2005 to 2011, and Hilda Solis (D-CA) served from 2001 to 2009, before serving as U.S. Secretary of Labor and then on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.
Stefany Shaheen (NH-01) would be just the second congresswoman whose mother, not father, preceded her in Congress; her mother - current Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) - did not run for re-election this year.

1
There are currently 37 woman v. woman U.S. House contests in 2026. The record for a single cycle is 47, set in 2020.

U.S. SENATE

The number of women senators is unlikely to increase as a result of the 2026 election.

Women currently hold 27 seats in the U.S. Senate, which is the record high. Four (2D, 2R) incumbent women did not run for re-election this year, and 2 (1D, 1R) more incumbent women senators who were not up for re-election in 2026 are favored gubernatorial nominees in Minnesota and Tennessee. If they are successful, at least six non-incumbent women must be elected to replace departing women senators for women’s Senate representation to remain level from 2026 to 2027.

At present, 3 (1D, 2R) women non-incumbents are favored to win in November, and 5 (3D, 2R) more women non-incumbents are in competitive contests; this includes one all-woman, open-seat contest in Minnesota between Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) and Michelle Tafoya (R-MN). Two (2R) incumbent women senators – Susan Collins (R-ME) and Darline Graham (R-SC) – are currently deemed as vulnerable in her bid for re-election; Graham is being challenged by another woman, Annie Andrews (D-SC).

If both vulnerable incumbents keep their seats and all competitive and likely non-incumbent women are successful apart (including just one winner from all-woman contests), the number of women senators would likely stay level from 2026 to 2027. New records seem unlikely in either for women senators in either major political party based on current forecasts. Currently unanticipated victories of non-incumbent women nominees, or defeats of either/both women senators seeking gubernatorial offices, would be necessary to surpass the current number of women senators in the next Congress.

Of the 3 (1D, 2R) non-incumbent women Senate nominees most favored to win in November, 1 (1D) is Black (Julianna Stratton, D-IL) and 2 (2R) are white (Harriet Hageman, R-WY; Julia Letlow, R-LA). Among the women in competitive U.S. Senate contests, 1 (1D) is Alaska Native (Mary Peltola, D-AK), 1 (1D) is Native American (Peggy Flanagan, D-MN), 1 (1R) is Latina and white (Michelle Tafoya, D-MN), and 2 (1D, 1R) are white (Annie Andrews, D-SC; Ashley Hinson, R-IA).

If successful, Flanagan and Peltola would be the first Native women to serve in the U.S. Senate. And if Stratton wins, a record 3 (3D) Black women will serve concurrently in the U.S. Senate for the first time in U.S. history. If Tafoya is successful, she would be the first Republican Latina to serve in the U.S. Senate.

GOVERNOR

At least five new women governors are likely to be elected in 2026, including the first Native woman governor in the U.S., but the high number of departures of incumbent women governors means that a potential for overall gains relies on the outcomes for incumbent and non-incumbent women nominees in highly competitive contests.

A record 14 (10D, 4R) women currently serve as governor in the United States. Five (4D, 1R) incumbent women governors are term-limited, another (1R) is retiring at the end of this term, and 6 (4D, 2R) incumbent women governors are running for re-election this year. Two (2D) women governors are not up for re-election in 2026 and will continue their terms into 2027. As a result, at least six new women must be elected governor in 2026 to maintain the current level of women’s gubernatorial representation in 2027.

Among the 26 (19D, 7R) women gubernatorial nominees in 2026, 4 (2D, 2R) are incumbents strongly favored to win re-election. Two (2D) incumbent women governors – Katie Hobb (D-AZ) and Tina Kotek (D-OR) – are in contests currently deemed competitive; Kotek is being challenged by another woman, state Senator Christine Drazan (R-OR). Of the 20 (15D, 5R) non-incumbent women nominees for governor, 5 (4D, 1R) are running in contests where they are currently favored to win, and another 7 (5D, 2R) are in contests deemed competitive by Cook Political Report. Eight (6D, 2R) non-incumbent women gubernatorial nominees are in contests where their opponents are strongly favored.

Based on current Cook Political Report ratings, women are:

4 of 6 (66.7%) of the most likely Democratic and 1 of 5 (20%) of the most likely Republican non-incumbent nominee pickups in gubernatorial contests. Women are 55.6% of all Democratic and 16.7% of all Republican non-incumbent nominees.
2 of 2 (100%) of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent nominees. They are 44.4% of all Democratic incumbent nominees.
0 of 2 (0%) of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. They are 25% of all Republican incumbent nominees.

A record number (4) of all-woman gubernatorial tickets are on the ballot in 2026. Women are running as a governor/lieutenant governor ticket in the general election in Massachusetts (Democratic incumbents Maura Healey and Kim Driscoll), Michigan (Democrats Jocelyn Benson and Winnie Brinks), New Mexico (Democrats Deb Haaland and Maggie Toulouse Oliver), and New York (Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul and Adrienne Adams). Governor Maura Healey (D-MA) and Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll (D-MA) became the first successful all-woman gubernatorial ticket in election 2022.

There are two other states where women serve simultaneously as governor and lieutenant governor – Arkansas and Virginia – but ran and were elected separately. In 2026, women are nominees for governor and lieutenant governor from the same party in Arkansas, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont.

Multiple women have the potential to mark key milestones in their state’s gubernatorial history. In addition to the election of the first women governors of Minnesota and Tennessee, Amy Acton (D-OH) would be the first woman elected as governor in Ohio.2 Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) could become the first woman governor of Georgia and the first Black women governor in the U.S. if successful in Georgia’s toss-up gubernatorial contest. Deb Haaland (D-NM) is favored to become the first Native American woman governor in U.S. history. Christine Drazen (R-OR) would be the first Republican woman governor of Oregon, and Gina Hinojosa (D-TX) would be the first Latina governor of Texas.